Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 23.888327 28.571213 33.702270 39.712433 46.528955 53.989647 62.741638
2025-08-24 16.795478 22.901606 30.258524 39.645787 51.167447 64.707280 81.671178
2025-08-31 12.248233 18.650996 26.989508 38.367254 53.186816 71.523907 95.584994
2025-09-07 9.898516 16.555418 25.803052 39.117128 57.276454 80.637550 112.353095
2025-09-14 7.751778 14.235704 23.828283 38.357505 59.031963 86.575608 125.110407
2025-09-21 6.544839 13.051080 23.213882 39.275519 62.937485 95.359438 141.809525
2025-09-28 5.014051 11.006520 20.965498 37.466071 62.707857 98.346160 150.694610
2025-10-05 4.390216 10.391911 20.853299 38.810714 67.051562 107.796464 168.720906
2025-10-12 3.801380 9.713243 20.519037 39.718213 70.722309 116.378032 185.791418
2025-10-19 3.279761 9.050957 20.106084 40.413956 74.045015 124.529406 202.481761
2025-10-26 2.877526 8.547818 19.898725 41.399366 77.827849 133.460344 220.550772
2025-11-02 2.381712 7.716934 18.955006 40.994072 79.297130 138.911757 233.647761
2025-11-09 2.003489 7.106449 18.427965 41.412681 82.368627 147.293817 251.967399
2025-11-16 1.636198 6.420665 17.653317 41.313803 84.590141 154.509898 268.914719
2025-11-23 1.251922 5.547497 16.322046 39.991279 84.568545 158.118272 280.425345
2025-11-30 1.066905 5.196592 16.087089 40.765643 88.242772 167.767869 301.544536
2025-12-07 0.832946 4.587992 15.138135 39.981061 89.027499 172.686971 315.369337
2025-12-14 0.717199 4.344941 15.035078 40.929212 93.019717 183.037670 338.078259
2025-12-21 0.517534 3.668950 13.690677 39.060209 91.588097 184.178030 346.024812
2025-12-28 0.458041 3.553513 13.822829 40.449168 96.436225 196.164579 371.850852
2026-01-04 0.393514 3.380227 13.761656 41.386383 100.441310 206.815956 395.761216
2026-01-11 0.332914 3.189819 13.615126 42.104806 104.038660 216.860312 418.917150
2026-01-18 0.287196 3.051084 13.598153 43.122192 108.274119 228.148412 444.406691